Starting Anew:
WDS’s Resolutions for 2012

With the holidays over and our resolutions for 2012 fresh in our minds, now is the perfect time to revisit our plans, adjust where needed, and then roll up our sleeves and start making it happen!

This e-newsletter, Quarterly Exchange, is just one of the ways we’ll be giving you more of what you’ve asked for this year. Look for it in your e-mail box quarterly, and on our website at www.wdsinvest.com/resources.

Quarterly Exchange promises to bring you insight into the investment world; information about market conditions; heads-up about government changes and legislation that can affect your savings and earnings; answers to your questions; and even an occasional peek at what your portfolio managers are reading these days!

We want this to be a two-way communication tool, with the kind of information you, our clients, want to have. To make sure that happens, we need your thoughts, suggestions and comments about how to ensure Quarterly Exchange adds value. We’re here to listen. Ask us your questions or send us your comments at contactus@wdsinvest.com.

Investment Perspectives
2011: The Unexpected, and More of the Same

Volume 7, No. 2, December 2011

While the global economy avoided tipping into recession, 2011 was not a banner year for investors. It can be summed up as having had slower-than-expected growth and macro-driven market volatility. The fragile recovery was made worse by unexpected events and political missteps. Then, the deepening European debt crisis – and ensuing market instability – knocked growth off course.

In North America, short-term interest rates have remained flat. Any concern about inflationary pressures has taken a back seat to a stalled recovery. Meanwhile, long-term interest rates – both north and south of the border – have declined roughly 35 per cent in 2011. Canada’s 10-year bond closed the year at 1.9 per cent. These rock-bottom, long-term interest rates are intended to support private spending, both business and consumer.

Yet, despite a weak global economy, corporations are now fully healed. Companies have been hoarding cash to restore balance sheets and are now holding record levels of it. Quality businesses report solid profits and currently trade at low relative valuations. In the grip of macroeconomic events however, the financial merits of individual companies, like earnings and growth, don’t seem to matter much.

We enter 2012 with the recovery still in rehab. The majority view is that we’ll see continued weak-but-positive economic growth in most countries, with those in the European Union being the notable exceptions. The outlook is unusually uncertain because the economy and markets hinge so strongly on macro events.

In these times, our best strategy is to stay close to economic issues and monitor the risks. We continue to practise the general principles of sound investment. While they can be affected in the short term by volatile markets, we believe that the fundamentals of high-quality investments will, in time, exert themselves.

As always, we thank you for your continued confidence and support.

Equities

North American markets had almost recovered to their pre-crisis levels by early 2011. Given the residual headwinds to a sustainable recovery, perhaps the market’s rebound was premature.

In a risk-adverse reaction to the unresolved euro zone crisis, global stock markets staged a synchronized mid-year correction. Throughout the year, the volatility of equity markets rivalled that of 2008.

Canada’s resource-based economy was negatively impacted by weak commodity prices and slower export growth. Its cyclical sectors – energy, materials, consumer discretionary, and information technology – all underperformed. Financials finished in the red, too. The S&P/TSX shed 16.2 per cent from its April high to close well below its 2010 year-end level, delivering a performance of -8.7 per cent.

With the best relative performance in 2011, the U.S. economy proved more resilient to the crisis than many expected. The S&P 500 index finished exactly where it started at 1,257. In Canadian-dollar terms, the S&P 500 gained 4.3 per cent due to dividends (2.1 per cent) and foreign exchange gains (2.2 per cent).

At the eye of the storm, the MSCI EAFE lost 9.8 per cent (in CDN$). All major continental European markets, including France and Germany’s, posted negative returns. Emerging markets were down roughly twice the amount of developed markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets index lost 18.1 per cent in 2011 after gaining 19.2 per cent in 2010 and 79.0 per cent in 2009 (in US$).

Fixed Income and Interest Rates

Central banks are now of one mind: keep short-term interest rates low. The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve expect to leave their key policy rates as is – 1 per cent and 0.25 per cent, respectively – until at least 2013. Come 2012, the Federal Reserve plans to release officials’ forecasts about the trajectory of interest rates. In doing so, it hopes to boost economic growth by delaying expectations of an increase.

In 2011, plunging bond yields expressed the extreme risk aversion that investors were feeling. The flare-up of the European sovereign debt crisis – and consequent flight to safety – helped to lift bond prices. As a result, bonds dramatically outperformed equities.

The DEX Universe Bond Index, a broad measure of the Canadian investment-grade fixed-income market, gained 9.7 per cent in 2011. Of course, it helps when 10- and 30-year yields close down to 1.9 per cent and 2.4 per cent, respectively. These rates offer no inflation protection to investors. A flattened yield curve, illustrated below, is usually a sign of sluggish economic activity.

In September, the Federal Reserve performed Operation Twist to push down U.S. long-term interest rates. It bought $400-billion of long-dated U.S. Treasuries, financed by the sale of an equal amount of shorter-dated bonds. The Fed’s demand for 10-year Treasuries helped drive bond prices higher and yields lower. In 2011, the yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped from 3.3 per cent to1.8 per cent.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Currencies

Canada’s small, open economy depends on global growth. Last year, the slowdown in Europe and emerging market countries negatively impacted resource demand and exports.

With falling demand, the Canadian dollar (as shown below) fell from $1.03 in June to $0.98 in December – down 5 per cent against the U.S. dollar in six months. It ended down just 2 per cent for the year. Longer term, Canada’s superior fiscal backdrop is expected to lend support to the relative strength of our dollar.

Unfortunately, conventional wisdom doesn’t apply when faced with a debt crisis overseas. Forecasters predicting a flight from the U.S. dollar were proven wrong. Despite the U.S. losing its AAA credit rating in August, investors decided that U.S. Treasuries still represented the only true ‘safe haven’ asset. In the last six months of the year, the U.S. dollar rose over 5 per cent against the Canadian dollar. For now, the $15-trillion U.S. national debt remains tolerable.

Commodities

Oil prices had a rollercoaster ride last year. As shown in the chart below, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light crude oil traded in a range between US $75.67 and US $113.93 in 2011. It finished at US $99.20, up 8.1 per cent on the year. Due to hostilities in the Middle East, near-term supply risk is expected to keep oil prices near US $100/bbl. for the foreseeable future.

With the notable exception of gold, commodity prices tumbled in 2011. Prices for base metals – copper, zinc, nickel, aluminums – were pushed down roughly 20 per cent on softened global demand.

While the prices of energy and commodities came under pressure, gold bullion bucked the trend. Yet, the price of gold itself became increasingly volatile. It began at US$1,408 and hit an all-time high of US$1,890 in the third quarter, before closing at US$1,565. Measured in U.S. dollars, gold was up 10 per cent for the year. With an improving U.S. economy and the rally in the U.S. dollar, it may prove more difficult for gold to advance. However, if the recovery stalls or investors become concerned about U.S. debt levels, gold may be able to sustain its high levels.

This report is provided for your information. Conclusions and opinions given do not guarantee future events or performance. Facts and data provided are from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee they are complete and accurate. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Before making an investment or adopting an investment strategy, each investor should review his/her investment objectives with their investment advisor. Watson Di Primio Steel (WDS) Investment Management Ltd. and individuals and companies who are related may, at any time, buy or sell securities that are hereby described in this report.

TFSAs: Have you reached your limit?

It doesn’t get any better than this! As the name implies, Tax Free Savings Accounts are solid opportunities for Canadians over age 18 to earn money from interest or investments, completely tax free!

As of January 1, 2012, you can tuck an additional $5,000 into your TFSA. Since the plan was launched in 2009, the total that any one person might have contributed to it now stands at $20,000. For a two-person household, that’s $40,000 of tax-free equity, just waiting for you to take advantage of it.

The amount any individual can contribute to a TFSA at any one time is a function of three things: the annual limit set by the government; any unused contribution room from previous years; and any recontribution room resulting from withdrawals made in prior years.

Like RRSPs, TFSAs are registered accounts designed to help us save for the future. With an RRSP, however, taxes must be paid on both the principal and any associated earnings when they’re withdrawn from the plan. But TFSAs are made up of post-tax dollars. Neither the principal nor any amounts earned on that principal are taxable when withdrawn.

Investment options for TFSAs are generally the same as for RRSPs. Cash, bonds, stocks, mutual funds, index funds, ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds), GICs and high-interest savings accounts are all eligible. Holdings can also be transferred between registered TFSA accounts without penalties, provided the right paperwork is completed and submitted to the financial institution involved in the transfer.

Rules about the timing of transfers and recontributions to TFSAs can be tricky, so be sure you have all the facts before you act. More information is available at the Canada Revenue Agency website, or from your WDS portfolio manager.

Ask & Answer
The Canada Pension Plan: How changes to the rules may impact you

ASK
My Canada Pension Plan Statement of Contributions shows that if I take my CPP retirement pension early (before age 65), my pension will be reduced – by as much as 30 per cent if it began in 2011 – at age 60. Apparently in 2012, that reduction starts increasing and can go up to 36 per cent by 2016.

I plan to work a few more years, at a reduced pace and rate. What is the best strategy for me to access my CPP benefits?

ANSWER
Starting in 2012 , the Government of Canada will allow us greater flexibility in combining pension and work income. We may now start collecting our CPP pension while continuing to work without having our earnings reduced.

Be aware, however, that CPP pensioners who opt for the early take-up before age 65 and continue to work must keep making CPP contributions, even those who retired before 2012. These contributions will count toward a new Post-Retirement Benefit, which will increase our future CPP pensions.

At age 60, your monthly CPP payout is 31.2 per cent less than it will be in 2017 when you reach age 65. This reduction is not a penalty. Rather, it recognizes that the younger you are when you begin to take your CPP; the longer you’ll be eligible to receive benefits.

CPP rules are designed to be fair, regardless of the age at which the retirement benefit is taken-up. The table below shows the present value of CPP income streams over different life spans. The present value (PV) is the amount of capital (in 2012 dollars) that is needed to pay out future benefits until you reach the age at the top of the column.

Our first instinct is usually to hold off taking our CPP, thinking we’ll collect more if we wait. But that’s chancy. In the life lottery, earlier is better than later. Many of us won’t be here to get those added benefits in 20 or 30 years. Given your plan to phase into retirement, it’s best to take the CPP retirement pension to supplement your earnings now.

* PV = present value – the capital in 2012 dollars needed to payout future monthly benefits.
Assumptions: Real return on benefits = 3%; Discount rate of return = 5%

PLEASE NOTE: The above discussion and the example cited are for illustrative purposes only. They are not intended to offer specific advice or recommendations to any one individual. For information, analysis and computations applicable to your own, personal situation, consult your own professional financial adviser.

FRIENDS, FAMILY MEMBERS AND WDS

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