2019 started off strong, with Canadian and U.S. markets both experiencing low-teen returns in the first quarter. At the same time, 10-year government yields have fallen in both countries as central banks signaled a pause in their rate hikes; in the U.S., this has led to a yield inversion, with 3-month treasury bills paying a higher return to investors than 10-year bonds. The price of oil saw a stark recovery, increasing 32.4% year-to-date, while the Canadian dollar and gold prices are both up slightly.

MARKETS QTR-END
29-Mar-19
YR-END
31-Dec-18
CHANGE
THIS YEAR
S&P/TSX Composite
16,102 14,323 12.4%
S&P 500
2,834 2,507 13.0%
EAFE 1,875 1,720 9.0%
GoC 10-Year
1.62% 1.96% -34bps
US Gov 10-Year
2.41% 2.69% -28bps
CAD$ / US$
0.749 0.733 2.2%
WTIC Oil
$60.14 $45.41 32.4%
Gold
$1,295.72 $1,281.34 1.1%

Returns are based on price change only, and exclude dividends.  Foreign indices are in USD.

Source: National Bank Financial, QUANT Monitor as of March 29, 2019